Aleksey Chernobelskiy
•November 15, 2024
6 reasons to put down a deck
Probabilistic reasons to run the other way
Welcome back and happy Thursday!
This week I forwarded ~100 different investment decks for LPs to review given their criteria (feel free to reach out if you’re looking to place $500k+, I don’t charge), and an LP’s email made me realize something… here it is below:
Email from LPThere’s a massive benefit to reviewing a ton of deals at the same time because you can immediately spot differences in disclosure, terms, professionalism, etc.
What I’ve found is that many LPs are often looking at deals in a vacuum - 1-3 at a time, perhaps, and that makes it easy to miss the forest for the trees.
Today I’ll give you 6 reasons to put down a deck immediately (i.e. move on!) because, in probability, the investment is probably not great.
Announcements (article continued below):
**Last premium post: **The dangers of “trust but verify” - what’s so bad with trusting but verifying when it comes to LP investments?
**LP Cohort: **Review 4 deals with me and other LPs to learn what to look out for - please reply to this email if it’s of interest.
LP Topics: a more advanced ongoing biweekly 1 hour meeting with other LPs where we'll go over investment decks, capital call / distressed situations, and modeling. Please reply to this email if you’re interested.
A few disclaimers before everyone attacks me with the one counterexample 😊:
Yes, there will be counterexamples.. but if you run an experiment containing any one of the 6 below and compare the results to a group that doesn’t have these, I have very strong conviction about the results (read: returns) of the latter group being better .. in other words, I’d bet that 70%+ decks with the below factors will underperform across a large enough study
I hate to be the one to remind you of this (not good for my business!) but just because you can investment money, doesn’t mean you need to .. and so if you see one of the below in a deck, chances are the return on hassle (more here on that here) on the diligence won’t be worth the return
Secrecy, dishonesty, caginess, or exaggerated language and pressure
This could be around background, the property.. or even the assumptions that were used
Many people ask me if it’s standard to ask for something or not - there are definitely market standards, and you’ll learn those over time.. but the bottom line is if you’re not comfortable, don’t invest - it’s that simple and it’s your money
If you’re thinking about investing money you’re in the middle of a sales process, whether you like it or not - these are the facts, and that’s ok! Checking in once in a while is normal, but any abnormal pressure likely means you should walk away
The word “guaranteed”
Guaranteed returns, guaranteed preferred returns, guaranteed ______
More on the topic here
PS I don’t care if there’s a personal guarantee involved or it’s preferred equity or debt investment, put down the deck and go take a walk :)
Unwillingness to provide detailed track record or unclear involvement in deal
Track record - For context, I’ve seen some operators with “a decade long track record” decline to provide it (or delay the request), while a 30 year veteran provided the track record on every single deal since inception (including the losses) within minutes
For newer GPs - it’s ok if it takes some time for them to put this together.. give people grace, but that doesn’t mean they don’t need to send it to you (or that you should invest without it)!
More on the topic in Track Record Audit
Involvement - make sure you understand who you’re speaking to, how they’re being compensated, and what their involvement is in the deal. You can read more on what to look out for here
Coinvest, in dollars < Acquisition Fee, in dollars
Simply said, this means that your money (which is where the acquisition fee comes from!) is contributing to the deal for the GP
To understand why is so important read:
Extra credit: Spotting GP/LP misalignment
Cap rate compression or extreme refinance assumptions
You’re trying to make a real estate investment, not a macro one
Yes - real estate investments are impacted by rates, but you should make sure they’re not dependent on them
Read more on Cap Rate Compression Traps and Refinance Assumption Traps
No return of capital clause
If you see this, put down the deck immediately… more on the topic here
For more on this topic, visit Top 15 Syndication Mistakes, and as always I look forward to your feedback!
I advise LPs on existing and potential positions and write articles here weekly on what I see in the marketplace that could help you invest better. You can find me on LinkedIn or Twitter.
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If you’d like to speak on the phone, you can reach me at aleksey@hey.com.
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